14 Comments
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Shakti C.'s avatar

Doesn’t OKLO actually fall into all three buckets? I.e. new-tech, baseload operator and fuel-recycling. Such vertical integration makes effectively makes them a highly leveraged pure SMR play.

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Edge Of Power's avatar

I’d say they are highly leveraged political play as well but yes, I write about them. It’s a lobby game since they have no product yet. The same goes to NNE and SMR

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Neural Foundry's avatar

Excellent breakdown of the three core segments! Your point about the fuel cycle being the first leg of the strategy is spot on. One miner worth mentioning in the uranium space is Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), which has a unique positioning in the US market. While you highlighted the Cameco-Westinghouse-Brookfield partnership, UEC's domestic ISR operations in Texas and Wyoming give them a strategic advantge for supplying the US nuclear renaissance without geopolitical exposure. Their fully licensed, production ready assets can restart relativley quickly compared to greenfield projects, which could be critical as these $80B deals and data center PPAs start demanding actual uranium deliveries. The timing mismatch between reactor construction and uranium supply ramp up is real. Companies like UEC that can bring production online in months rather than years should benefit significanly. Do you see domestic uranium producers getting preference in supply contracts given the energy sovereignty focus you mentioned, or will it still be a global commodity market?

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Edge Of Power's avatar

It’s a very good question and I think it’ll be opportunistic depending on concrete demands but domestic supply will be more and more prioritised. Slowly but steadily. I’m not the smartest guy in the room on this but politics will finally

Why? Because energy sovereignty and national security outweigh short-term spot price fluctuations. Utilities are betting their next 60 years on fuel security, not the cheapest quarterly import.

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Notes From Wall Street's avatar

I myself have been buying OKLO/CCJ for a while now. Though now I believe they are both extended now. Sam Altsman OKLO was a buy around 67 and Uranium miner CCJ came on to my radar at around USD 86 and the added to my position yesterday as it bounced from its 50 day moving average. Though yesterdays buy was a much smaller position compared to my initial entry.

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Edge Of Power's avatar

I have OKLO shares and calls, can't tell you I'm rich off this amount but still counts, the last time I added at $110, I'm thinking of it as of ChatGPT subsidiary. I also recently bought uuuu, others are on my radar, they're the future for sure. I was more concentrated on VST and CEG. They gained a lot, gotta wait for a pullback

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Notes From Wall Street's avatar

OKLO at $110 is extended, and the risk has increased meaningfully at this level. Since I use the 50-day moving average as my primary sell guide, the current distance from that support line makes the setup less favorable for me. I’m also not seeing constructive price-and-volume action in this zone. That doesn’t mean the stock won’t continue higher or that it’s setting up to fail — it simply means the risk/reward is not attractive based on my process. I would prefer to wait for a lower-risk entry before getting involved. That might be at higher price or even lower.

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Notes From Wall Street's avatar

Keep in mind I already have a position bought at 67 so waiting makes sense to me

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James NG's avatar

I’m a huge fan of nuke power generally. I do think the best fit for powering an adjacent Datacentre is SMRs not large single unit plants. With SMRs you could have say six, and cycle through them for maintenance outages. With one big say 1.2GW plant it’s either on or it’s not. When it down for maintenance or refuel you’ve suddenly gotta find that 1.2GW in the grid

So I think right now they are just grabbing whatever tech is available- shuttered plants etc

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Edge Of Power's avatar

I researched SMR, and they failed to execute a large project in the U.S. due to its high cost, leading many industry experts to express significant doubt. They still need to prove this technology in practice, which makes investments in them a pure venture bet. Their biggest asset is obscure lobby company 🤷🏻‍♂️

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James NG's avatar

I was referring to SMRs generally, not the ticker SMR (Nuscale). But yeah SMRs are still largely paper reactors right now. My point is, if you had a choice of any reactor for a concentrated load like a Datacentre then they are a better choice than one large reactor

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Edge Of Power's avatar

No one knows until we see how it works. They have to show first and make a deal.

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Edge Of Power's avatar

I don’t think TA has smth to do with OKLO at all. Look, it was overextended on every level from $20. What’s your take? MA or energy sec? I’d bet with him. Recently they received $2B order. Anyway, TA here makes no sense for me. Fundamentals rule but here they are obscure. You either believe in management and Sam or not.

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Neural Foundry's avatar

The strategic pivot by NextEra Energy to partner with Google on nuclear projects is fascinating. While everyone's focused on the Westinghouse deal, NextEra's positioning as both a renewable leader and now nuclear enabler gives them a unique competitive moat. The question is whther the regulatory environment will move fast enough to match the urgency of AI's power demands. The $80B deal signals serious capital commitment, but execution timelines for nuclear are notoriously long.

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