Gemini 3 is a Leap, But the AI War is Far From Over

Google Forces a Difficult Choice on the Open AI Consortium and Investors

The technological leap made by Google with the launch of Gemini 3 sends several important, fundamental signals to the market. The initial reaction was clear: investors bought GOOG 0.00%↑ and META 0.00%↑ stock, while avoiding MSFT 0.00%↑ due to its deep connection with Open AI. Immediately, apocalyptic predictions began to surface about how badly Nvidia and other companies associated with ChatGPT would fare.

However, the reality of the AI race is far more complex.

1. The Critical Reality Check: Chatbot vs Ecosystem

It is a crucial mistake to assume that one powerful new chatbot can overturn the entire market. Only if he has powerful ecosystem.

The market fears Open AI has lost its technological advantage because Google is now offering not just a new chatbot, but deep ecosystem integration. For example, the ability to export graphs directly into the cloud significantly streamlines workflows. I must admit, Google’s AI Mode works even better than the bot, which was a pleasant discovery for me.

Yet, this doesn’t make Google invincible. Open AI is catching up with Atlas and its shareholder Misrosoft has its own edge

• Microsoft’s Moat: The market is undervaluing Microsoft’s entrenched position in the corporate B2B world. The one thing Google currently lacks is the ubiquitous integration that Microsoft has with every office in the world.

• A Necessary Move: I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Microsoft will be forced to release Copilot as a standalone application something they should have done long ago. The logic of time and consumer demand dictates that they must reach new markets without being tied exclusively to Windows.

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2. Never Write Off the Cash-Rich (And AMD’s Surprise Attack)

My core belief remains: you should never write off companies that possess vast amounts of cash and ambitious leadership. We saw this before with Google, which everyone was selling off based on the notion that it was supposedly falling out of use.

The team that pioneered this brave new world (Open AI) has not gone anywhere. I am certain that the immense funding they have secured must be preparing new products. While I’m skeptical they will get all the money they were promised, the key backers like Nvidia ($NVDA) and Softbank are not going anywhere.

OpenAI’s Endgame: The Everything App

Meanwhile, one of the chief beneficiaries of the original Open AI deal, AMD, has just made a major breakthrough, perhaps the most important one in its career. I am referring to the successful training of the ZAYA1 model (a large-scale Mixture-of-Experts) in partnership with Zyphra. This is a huge signal that AMD’s platform is now capable of running the most complex AI architectures, directly challenging Nvidia’s technical lead.

The market has already partially removed the “Open AI overhang,” causing a sell-off ORCL 0.00%↑ back to pre-contract levels. I wouldn’t bet against Larry Ellison, but that is my subjective view. My position in Oracle doesn’t look great right now, but I’m not selling.

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3. The Big Picture: Future-Proofing and Market Noise

We are seeing investors scrambling to decide which of the Big Tech giants will capture leadership here. Today, Tesla (due to new chips) and Google are trending, with META also climbing as the market wonders what the team of billionaires there will deliver. This could involve glasses or some other product that eats into Apple’s share. A major breakthrough is also expected in the Internet of Things (IoT).

These chatbots are inevitably going to evolve into the “everything app” and continue to cannibalize the market share of traditional software companies. This process is already happening: copywriters, programmers, designers, and bank clerks are already less needed at the grassroots level, and soon, fewer builders will be required. We are about to see a massive release of new products onto the market that will make money and put to rest any doubts about the AI sector.

In this context, David Sacks’ statement today is highly symptomatic. Sacks is one of Silicon Valley’s most famous technology investors, a member of the “PayPal Mafia,” and a major investor in $META and other giants. His opinion often reflects the sentiment of “big money” in the tech world.

As I have written repeatedly, the market cannot grow without Big Tech sharing its profit margins with the miners who build data centers, and with those who supply power to them. For the second session in a row, we are seeing these stocks remembered, and they are genuinely becoming the engine of the market.

Ultimately, my advice remains: Do not rush to write off any participants in the Open AI consortium, and do not assume Google is now invulnerable. And yes, if you detach from the sheer futurism, don’t believe the hype. The AI race is only just beginning, and we must watch the market carefully.

This publication is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the securities mentioned.