TikTok Deal Could Boost Oracle by 50%

U.S.–China talks are killing chip globalization — and turning Oracle into a media conglomerate.

NVIDIA’s clash with Beijing shows how the global tech map is being redrawn. Chips are no longer just about performance — they’re about geopolitics, supply chains, and which side of the Pacific controls the future of AI. But semiconductors are only one front. As NVIDIA navigates export bans and data center politics, Oracle is positioning itself to capture an entirely different prize: TikTok’s U.S. business. That deal could reshape not just social media, but Oracle’s own valuation — potentially adding 50%

U.S.–China talks opened with news of Beijing’s new probe into NVIDIA — a move that may finally end Jensen Huang’s not-so-subtle courtship of China. While the company’s lobbyists keep pushing the narrative that the world should run on chips from Santa Clara, Beijing doesn’t buy it. Even though domestic players have stumbled in training cutting-edge AI models—Huawei included—China isn’t willing to let NVIDIA dominate.

For investors, the message is clear: stop counting on NVIDIA’s China push. But that’s not necessarily bad news. NVIDIA is on track to hit $200 billion in annual revenue without China, fueled almost entirely by Big Tech’s massive AI spend—Google alone invests $85 billion annually, and OpenAI is set to burn through $300 billion with Oracle as its cloud partner. Those dollars are flowing straight into NVIDIA’s GPUs.

Ironically, a clean break with China may even strengthen NVIDIA’s position. Washington is likely to double down on export controls while at the same time funding domestic megadata centers—likely in Republican states to generate jobs. That puts NVIDIA right at the heart of both the AI arms race and U.S. politics.

AMD, meanwhile, has been hit harder. Losing China is painful for them: their stock has struggled to break past $160, as competition in the U.S. is much tougher than in Asia.

The broader US-China story isn’t just about chips—it’s about communications, influence, and power. The forced restructuring of TikTok’s U.S. business puts Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz in line to control an 80% stake. Existing ByteDance investors (Susquehanna, KKR, General Atlantic) will keep just under 20%, in line with U.S. law.

With TikTok’s U.S. revenues already around $15 billion, clarity on ownership could send that number much higher, to $30-40 billion. Oracle, in particular, stands to benefit as it folds TikTok’s cloud business into its own. That could put Larry Ellison’s empire closer to a $400–500 billion valuation. Don’t forget: Ellison and Andreessen are aligned with Trump, and this platform is almost certain to drift rightward. Democrats, in turn, may soon find themselves without a major social network aligned to their base.

The ripple effects will be massive. A stronger U.S. TikTok will intensify competition with Meta, trigger more AI spending, and could drive a wave of acquisitions—Snap, languishing in investor apathy, or even Pinterest. Expansion into Europe seems inevitable, just as Chinese platforms get split into separate East and West ecosystems. In other words, TikTok could end up looking a lot like NVIDIA’s chips: divided by geopolitics, but unstoppable in scale.

This publication is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the securities mentioned.