Redwire’s Drone Pivot: Why The Street Sees Room for Another Huge Run

Redwire's $925M drone acquisition could finally flip the switch from cash burn to cash flow — just as global defense spending enters a new phase.

Redwire ($RDW): From Burn Rate to Pentagon’s Front Row

Redwire has surged 147% over the past 12 months and is up ~15% YTD, despite reporting over $150 million in losses last year. On the surface, it looks like a speculative space contractor. But underneath, Redwire is becoming a direct play on the Pentagon’s evolving priorities.

Two macro shifts are converging in Redwire’s favor:

1. U.S. defense spending is structurally locked at ~$1 trillion. The political will to cut it does not exist. Within that, autonomous warfare is seeing the fastest budget acceleration.

2. Pete Hegseth has made drone manufacturing a top defense priority. That decision instantly re-rated an entire layer of under-the-radar suppliers — firms that, until recently, traded at micro-cap valuations. Against that backdrop, even a $2.7 billion company like Redwire now looks like a giant.